The Guns and Missiles of November

Why, dear friends, does it feel as though we are rushing headlong towards war??

Today a flight of Turkish F16's shot down a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber. Both the pilot and Weapon Systems Officer were killed in their parachutes while descending (most CERTAINLY NOT COOL).  Further more, according to reports, a rescue team of Russian Marines was sent in for a recovery and there were fatalities. The Crazed American sends love and condolences to the families of the fallen Russian airmen and Marines.  I just hope they are not the first casualties of a major shooting war. 

Instead of immediately requesting a dialogue at the highest level with the Russians, the Turkish Government went right to NATO, undoubtedly with a copy of the North Atlantic Treaty, Article Five nicely highlighted. 

Who's to blame in this fracas??

Everybody - long and short of it. 

The Russians aren't currently fighting ISIS. Sure they'll engage targets of opportunity right now, but their stated goal is to shore up the faltering and beat-up regime of Bashar al-Assad.  So, in a prudent military move they will take out the weakest and most highly disorganized opponent of the Assad's.  Primarily the "Free" Syrian "Army". (Quotations are not by accident).  These are apparently a group of idiots the Obama Administration threw some money, a bit of training and some weapons at, and expected to ride, victorious into Damascus.  So, since the Assad's have decades of being really, really mean to a lot of people behind them, there are a lot of disparate groups all fighting themselves and the Assad's for who gets to be the least dead warlord in Syria. 

One of those groups is a group of people who are identified in most press as the Turkmen.  These are not Turkish people by nationality, but by ethnicity.  They are Syrian by nationality, and are trying to overthrow Assad, hence the Russian fighter-bombers in the area trying to kill them. 

The area we are talking about is a very small area of land that Turkey claims, but Syria does not recognize the Turkish claim.  Russian aircraft have strayed over this small spit of Turkey repeatedly.  Turkish Air Defense has warned the Russians repeatedly about straying over their territory. 

In less heated times, the Turkish government under Erdogan would have sent up a couple F16's to make sure none of those Russian bombs were landing on the wrong side of the border, and deliberately kept very good records of what transpired and lodged a formal complaint with the Russian Federation.  Let the diplomats handle it.  Nobody gets shot at.  More importantly, nobody has a reason to escalate. 

Let me tell you one possible scenario of what might happen next. Erdogan is all riled up.  The Turkmen he's supporting in Northern Syria get a temporary reprieve from Russian air strikes.  The Russians, figuring they have to do SOMETHING in support of their strategy change up the mix and bring in a few more of the Su34 fast movers who are more than a match for the Turkish F16 air defense fighters and support the bombers.  Erdogan will move additional air defense units, meaning surface to air missiles into the area.  The next time the Russians move against the Turkmen, whether intentionally, or accidentally, a Russian pilot will get painted by an air defense radar and will fire upon it.  Or, the Turkmen will hightail it across the border into Turkish territory the next time the Russians come a calling. 

National borders are a very inconvenient thing.  The Russians will do what we (the US) ALWAYS do, ignore them.  We currently just do it with unmanned armed drones.  The Russians, lacking a bit in that technology will send their combat equivalent, manned ground attack aircraft and air superiority fighters to defend them. 

It spirals quickly from there.  Turkey is backed up by NATO, and the Article Five provisions state that all member states will act as an attack upon one is an attack upon them all. 

Now is a time for sage, wise leadership and for cooler heads to prevail.  Alas, I fear we are well and truly fucked, as the foreign policy skills of the POTUS and current and previous SecState are woefully lacking. 

We created ISIS.  In our zeal to kill another Bogey Man (Assad) we threw logistical support at anyone with a pulse.  Some of those anti-Assad boys are the crafty bastards in charge of the new Caliphate.  We've been dumb enough to continue to double down on bad choices.  The long and the short of it, we should be figuring out a way to work with the Russians, not taking us to the brink of war with the only nation in the world that truly is an existential threat to us.  No doubt the Lightbringer-in-Chief, Cooler of the Earth and Lower-er of the Seas hasn't read his Sun-Tsu. 

Keep your friends close - keep your enemies closer. 

Hug your families, and pray that our leaders pull their heads out of their asses long enough to not condemn us all to a long and brutal war.

RADM Joshua Painter:  "This business will get out of control. It'll get out of control, and we'll be lucky to live through it."