Pick a World War
My favorite Chinese Curse: "May you live in interesting times."
Where to start? Civilization is falling apart, the Mandate of Heaven has been lost by all involved and uninvolved.
Are we, as one would like to say, in the blissfully ignorant days of August 1939?
No. We are not in a time analogous to the days pre World War II.
In my humble opinion, we are in June - July 1914. The war that is coming - it is coming, mind you will bear a much greater resemblance to the First World War. We see the same signs. An alliance system, rampant "isms" (in this case nationalism and religious fanaticism), and a proliferation of advanced and unadventurous weapons. All that is currently needed is an event that will spark a conflagration.
Will there be a long drawn out conflict? No. Modern technology will see that this war will be short in terms of the length of full fledged nation state combat.
Will the aftermath be long? Yes indeed. These events will echo throughout History. History is definitely proceeding, not dead as some stated at the end of the cold war.
Who will win? Depending on one critical element, that has only become apparent in the past 40 or so years - an element of politics and warfare that could not be imagined as even being called into question during the first or second World Wars -
The attention span of the American public.
That is the decisive element in modern warfare.
America is an empire, like it or not. No matter what political spectrum you ally yourself with, know that America is the most powerful Empire that the planet Earth has ever seen.
From time to time it is crucial for Empires to act Imperial. For those out there that decry Imperialism, you must know that everything that you take for granted, every luxury you have ever know was bought and paid for by one empire or another. Face it, Homo Sapiens functions in an Imperial manner and force is its most direct currency. As the top dog on this little rock we call a planet, America has no choice but to be involved when our interests are involved. Since our interests are the whole world...
Got a bone to pick: People calling for restraint from the Israelis.
Analogy and metaphor time:
A group of men come into your home, spraying gunfire, and breaking your hard earned property, then proceed to begin kidnapping your children and commence raping your wife. You have a handgun. Now - show restraint!
Fools.
Note to those of you who are not cognizant of the methods employed by a modern, professional military force. Israel is showing restraint. If Israel wasn't showing restraint, they'd be firing MLRS and 155 AP and HE into downtown Beirut (because chemical and nuclear weapons are so messy!). Civilian casualties would be measured in the tens of thousands PER DAY. Israeli tanks and APC's would be running through bombed and shelled towns and villages killing the wounded and innocent.
Vladimir Putin, sir, your call for restraint rings hollow. Would you have the Israelis show as much restraint as your forces have in Chechnya? Or Berlin in '45? I know why you said that, sir, but please...
Israel will conduct its operations according to the accepted laws of war. I have no doubt that Israel will be very thorough in it's quest to secure their land from the enemies of peace. Not to mention - just who does Israel approach to negotiate a ceasefire and secure the return of it's kidnapped soldiers?
Something tells me that Mahmoud Ahmedinejad's not taking calls from the Tel Aviv area code...
A war avoided is not a war that will not be fought.
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